1. update on 23092008 and NEW CONCLUSION regarding the Electoral Voters

A) situation regarding the EVs

EVs = electoral voters = Wahlmänner

forecast on EVs on 23092008


269 EVs for Obama (DP) = 50 %

42 EVs are to close to decide = 7,8%

227 EVs for McCain (RP) = 42,2%

EVs in total: 538; Majority: 270


B) interesting states (“swing states”) on 23092008

The Washington Post defined swing states for the 2004 election as those that were decided by less than three percentage points in the 2000 presidential election.

Colorado: „DP: 3,4% more“; no longer “to close to decide” => gets “barely DP” => 9 EVs for Obama

Florida: “RP: 3,1% more”; gets “barely RP” but is still very close => 27 EVs for McCain

Michigan: “DP: 4,4% more”; no longer “to close to decide” => gets “barely DP” => 17 EVs for Obama

Minnesota: “DP: 7,5% more”; gets “weak DP”

New Hampshire: “”DP: 2,25% more”; gets “to close to decide” => swing state

Nevada: “RP: 1% more” => still “to close to decide” = > swing state

New Mexiko: had bad polls, but now we’re able to forecast: “DP: 7,42 % more” => “weak DP” = > 5 EVs for Obama

North Dakota: “RP: 6,7 % more”; no longer “to close to decide” = > gets “barely RP” => 3 EVs for McCain

Ohio: “RP: 0,8% more” => still “to close to decide” => swing state

Pennsylvania: “DP: 4,6% more”; is still “barely DP”

Virginia: “RP: 1,3% more”; is still “to close to decide” => swing state


C) Evaluation of own methods, criterias and classifications

• [has to be done]