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ELECTION RESULT and Swing States in 2008

ELECTION RESULT

365 EVs for Obama (DP) = 67,8 %

173 EVs for McCain (RP) = 32,2 %

EVs in total: 538; Majority: 270


Swing States in 2008

So called "swing states" are those states where the margin between the candidates of the to big parties (Democratic Party / Republican Party) is less than 3%.

Florida DP+2,5%
Indiana DP+0,9%
Montana RP+2,5%
Missouri RP+0,1%
North Carolina DP+0,4%

5. update on 04112008

EVs = electoral voters

forecast on EVs


353 EVs for Obama (DP) = 66 %

42 EVs are to close to decide = 8 %

143 EVs for McCain (RP) = 26 %

EVs in total: 538; Majority: 270

4. update on 11102008

No update anymore for the following days, because I am convinced that Obama will win. I will do it again on the Election Day on 4th of November 2008.

3. update on 30092008

EVs = electoral voters

forecast on EVs


269 EVs for Obama (DP) = 50 %

69 EVs are to close to decide = 12,8 %

200 EVs for McCain (RP) = 37,20 %

EVs in total: 538; Majority: 270

only one important change: Florida gets from "barely RP" => "to close to call". So McCain losts the 27 EVs of Florida.

2. update on 23092008 regarding the results of electoral-vote.com

EVs = electoral voters

forecast on EVs


282 EVs for Obama (DP) = 52 %

20 EVs are to close to decide = 4 %

236 EVs for McCain (RP) = 44 %

EVs in total: 538; Majority: 270

1. update on 23092008 and NEW CONCLUSION regarding the Electoral Voters

A) situation regarding the EVs

EVs = electoral voters = Wahlmänner

forecast on EVs on 23092008


269 EVs for Obama (DP) = 50 %

42 EVs are to close to decide = 7,8%

227 EVs for McCain (RP) = 42,2%

EVs in total: 538; Majority: 270


B) interesting states (“swing states”) on 23092008

The Washington Post defined swing states for the 2004 election as those that were decided by less than three percentage points in the 2000 presidential election.

Colorado: „DP: 3,4% more“; no longer “to close to decide” => gets “barely DP” => 9 EVs for Obama

Florida: “RP: 3,1% more”; gets “barely RP” but is still very close => 27 EVs for McCain

Michigan: “DP: 4,4% more”; no longer “to close to decide” => gets “barely DP” => 17 EVs for Obama

Minnesota: “DP: 7,5% more”; gets “weak DP”

New Hampshire: “”DP: 2,25% more”; gets “to close to decide” => swing state

Nevada: “RP: 1% more” => still “to close to decide” = > swing state

New Mexiko: had bad polls, but now we’re able to forecast: “DP: 7,42 % more” => “weak DP” = > 5 EVs for Obama

North Dakota: “RP: 6,7 % more”; no longer “to close to decide” = > gets “barely RP” => 3 EVs for McCain

Ohio: “RP: 0,8% more” => still “to close to decide” => swing state

Pennsylvania: “DP: 4,6% more”; is still “barely DP”

Virginia: “RP: 1,3% more”; is still “to close to decide” => swing state


C) Evaluation of own methods, criterias and classifications

• [has to be done]